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The Anticipation Reaches the Boiling Point as the Bitcoin ETF Approval Nears

Surge of speculation: the buzz around Bitcoin ETF approval

The cryptocurrency community is abuzz with anticipation, as speculation about the imminent approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF takes center stage. Social media platforms, particularly X, are rife with discussions and predictions, adding fuel to the already heated expectations. Amidst this frenzy, a few tweets have particularly captivated enthusiasts and investors alike. 

The prospect of a significant decision by the SEC, potentially set for announcement as soon as Friday, has sent the rumor mill into overdrive. Yet, as excitement mounts, a sense of cautious skepticism from some analysts serves as a reminder that the path to approval may not be as straightforward as the tweets suggest.

Social media's role in fueling ETF expectations

The heart of the speculation was fueled by a cryptic tweet from Grayscale's chief legal officer, stating, "Just filling out some forms." This post alone garnered significant attention, with 1.9 million views and over 6,700 likes, hinting at something significant on the horizon. Concurrently, TechCrunch reporter Jacquelyn Melinek's tweet, citing sources "extremely close to the matter," forecasted the approval of multiple ETFs, intensifying the community's anticipation.

Jacquelyn Melinek (@jacqmelinek) January 4, 2024:

“heard from sources extremely close to the matter that the bitcoin spot ETF is going to be approved by the SEC for *multiple* firms' applications”

Amidst this digital buzz, the hashtag #BTCETF and the term "Bitcoin ETFs" began trending, mirroring Bitcoin's own upswing. The cryptocurrency's value witnessed a notable 3.4% rise in just 24 hours, as per TradingView data, possibly linked to the optimistic speculation swirling online. 

Analysts weigh in: a realistic look at ETF approval timelines

Despite the growing excitement, seasoned analysts offer a more measured perspective. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart suggests the speculation is largely noise, projecting a more likely approval timeline between January 8 and 10. This cautious stance is echoed by Joe Carlasare, a legal expert, who points out that the public comment period for several ETF applications remains open until midnight on January 5, rendering an earlier approval unlikely. 

Senior Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas explains that the SEC's final review process is still underway, with crucial forms like 19b-4 and S-1 yet to be filed and approved. 

Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 4, 2024:

“SEC is giving final comments as we speak, then issuers will submit final 19b-4s and S-1s soon after. So I mean this is def as close to "done" as we've been but no official approval as far as I know.”

Scott Johnsson of VB Capital also casts doubt on an immediate approval, highlighting the complexity of the process.